The pandemic continued to dominate discourse in April as case numbers globally reached
record daily levels, but the impact became increasingly differentiated between the developed
world, where the vaccine roll-out is bringing herd immunity and the end of lockdowns and
movement restrictions into sight, and developing nations, notably India and Brazil, where
second waves …
While the vaccine news in early November was arguably the critical turning point in this cycle,
providing light at the end of the pandemic tunnel, it was only in the first quarter of 2021, 12
months from the pandemic’s onset, that investors began to price in the recovery ahead and a
return to post-pandemic normality.
One year ago coronavirus began to ravage the global economy and stock markets. The ensuing
recession was the worst since the Great Depression, yet over those 12 months global equities have
returned almost 30%, despite a 35% decline in the initial few weeks of the pandemic.
The surge in markets in late 2020, triggered by the positive vaccine news, Biden’s success
in the US election and the favourable settling of the UK-EU trade negotiations, continued
into the new year
Returns in 2020 of 16% from global developed world equities, 18% from emerging markets, and 10% from global government bonds (all in USD terms) mask the enormous turmoil wrought by the coronavirus pandemic and the scale of its economic, financial and human damage:
Despite a positive start to the month, risk assets sold off as the month progressed, weighed down by the rapid rise in coronavirus cases across Europe and the US, and uncertainty ahead of the US Presidential election.
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