The Trump Dividend

14 September 2026

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  • Rising oil prices and expectations of further Fed tightening dominated markets, with inflation concerns outweighing growth optimism.
  • Rising gilt yields, fiscal pressures and concerns over economic growth reinforced market focus on the government’s ability to maintain credibility ahead of the Autumn Budget.
  • The combination of resilient growth and rising oil-driven inflation strengthened expectations that ECB policymakers may need to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.
  • Emerging markets in focus as BRICS deepens ties, Japan edges towards tighter policy, oil remains exposed to Middle East tensions and US influence grows across Latin America.

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