A Right R-Oil Mess

23 March 2026

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  • US financial conditions were dominated by the intensifying Iran-driven energy shock, which tightened financial conditions and pushed back expectations for monetary easing.
  • The BOE held interest rates, but the outlook deteriorated as external energy shocks compounded weak growth, reinforcing stagflation concerns.
  • The EU faced a worsening stagflationary backdrop, as the energy shock simultaneously pressured growth and inflation while forcing greater policy coordination.
  • China urges Iran de-escalation as US-China talks continue, while energy shocks and Hormuz tensions heighten global supply risks and crisis responses.

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