High five for growth

21 July 2026

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  • Cooling inflation eased immediate rate hike expectations, but higher oil prices and geopolitical risks kept markets focused on future Federal Reserve policy.   
  • Political transition shifted attention to fiscal discipline, while stronger sterling reflected investor confidence in stable economic and monetary policy.
  • Weak economic growth and rising energy costs reinforced expectations of cautious ECB policy, despite inflation remaining above the target level.
  • Geopolitical tensions, slowing Chinese growth and persistent yen weakness increased global market uncertainty, inflation risks and pressure for policy support.

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