Cooling US inflation offered markets some relief, but renewed Middle East conflict and higher energy prices kept global central banks cautious and interest-rate expectations volatile.

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The week was dominated by macroeconomic fundamentals, with markets focusing on the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, which reinforced expectations of higher US interest rates for longer. Investors grew more confident that global growth was slowing gradually rather than weakening sharply, supporting equity markets despite higher bond yields.

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Global investors became more optimistic following energy-market stabilisation, but geopolitical and climate-related risks remain elevated. The major concern for investors shifted to growth: weaker US employment data, soft consumer conditions in the UK, and uneven global demand raised questions about the strength of the second-half recovery.

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The dominant global financial theme was the tension between growth ambitions and fiscal constraints. Markets focused on AI-driven investment, government spending priorities, trade and industrial policy, and central-bank outlooks, while political developments in the UK, US, Europe, and China increasingly influenced.

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The dominant global market driver was the sharp reversal in energy prices following Middle East de-escalation, improving risk sentiment while leaving long-term geopolitical uncertainty unresolved.

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Global markets were driven by geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East, persistent inflation and rate uncertainty, and accelerating fragmentation in trade and monetary policy across major economies.

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Iran-driven energy shocks eclipsed central banks, becoming the dominant force shaping inflation, growth, and global markets.

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Global markets were primarily driven by geopolitics rather than macroeconomic data, with energy security becoming the key determinant of inflation and growth expectations.

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