Global markets navigated a complex web of political gridlock, modest economic resilience, and shifting trade dynamics, with China’s growth surprising on the upside while the US and Europe grappled with fiscal and institutional strains.

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The rest of the world is feeling the ripple effects of developed-market policy and geopolitical shifts; in effect, markets are beginning to price in structural rather than purely cyclical risks — making broad diversification and macro-hedges more relevant.

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Global markets faced heightened volatility as US political dysfunction and China trade tensions, UK fiscal uncertainty, EU energy and trade reforms, Middle East ceasefire easing oil risk, and Japan’s political instability combined with rising gold, reflecting broad economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

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Global markets balanced political and economic uncertainty: US shutdown and UK weakness contrasted with EU tech resilience, China stimulus, and tentative Middle East peace, prompting cautious optimism.

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Global debt hits a record $337.7 trillion. The Institute of International Finance reported that total global debt rose by approximately $21 trillion in first half 2025, driven by loose financial conditions, a weaker US dollar, and accommodative monetary policies, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio above 324%.

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Central banks are in a transition phase: with the US initiating rate cuts, Japan starting policy normalisation (selling ETFs), while the UK and EU remain cautious, holding rates steady amid persistent inflation. The balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth is delicate, and financial markets are reacting strongly to any signals of change in central bank stance.

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Central banks are in a transition phase: with the US initiating rate cuts, Japan starting policy normalisation (selling ETFs), while the UK and EU remain cautious, holding rates steady amid persistent inflation. The balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth is delicate, and financial markets are reacting strongly to any signals of change in central bank stance.

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Global markets came under strain as slowing growth, weak trade and rising long-term borrowing costs put pressure on governments and central banks alike. Policymakers now tread a fine line between easing to support demand and avoiding destabilising debt or financial imbalances.

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