Weaker US employment shifted markets towards a more cautious interest-rate outlook, but persistent energy and geopolitical risks kept inflation concerns alive – leaving investors caught between slowing global growth and sticky inflation.

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The final week of July was dominated by central bank decisions and key macroeconomic data, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan alongside GDP, inflation and PMI releases. Markets were also influenced by easing Middle East tensions, which pushed oil prices lower and supported global equity sentiment.

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Surging oil prices and renewed US tariffs revived global inflation concerns, pushing bond yields higher and reducing expectations for easier monetary policy.

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Cooling US inflation offered markets some relief, but renewed Middle East conflict and higher energy prices kept global central banks cautious and interest-rate expectations volatile.

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The week was dominated by macroeconomic fundamentals, with markets focusing on the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, which reinforced expectations of higher US interest rates for longer. Investors grew more confident that global growth was slowing gradually rather than weakening sharply, supporting equity markets despite higher bond yields.

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Global investors became more optimistic following energy-market stabilisation, but geopolitical and climate-related risks remain elevated. The major concern for investors shifted to growth: weaker US employment data, soft consumer conditions in the UK, and uneven global demand raised questions about the strength of the second-half recovery.

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The dominant global financial theme was the tension between growth ambitions and fiscal constraints. Markets focused on AI-driven investment, government spending priorities, trade and industrial policy, and central-bank outlooks, while political developments in the UK, US, Europe, and China increasingly influenced.

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The dominant global market driver was the sharp reversal in energy prices following Middle East de-escalation, improving risk sentiment while leaving long-term geopolitical uncertainty unresolved.

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