Across all regions, the dominant macro driver is clear:
Geopolitics → energy shock → inflation → tighter financial conditions

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risks, dominated markets and politics worldwide, driving energy price volatility, shaping economic policy, and overshadowing domestic macroeconomic trends.

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risks, dominated markets and politics worldwide, driving energy price volatility, shaping economic policy, and overshadowing domestic macroeconomic trends.

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The week’s dominant theme across regions was geopolitical energy shock → inflation risk → market volatility, all reshaping expectations for monetary policy and growth globally.

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The US–Israel strikes on Iran, including the killing of its supreme leader, have sharply escalated conflict and energy risks, provoking global condemnation, fears of wider war, and increased volatility in oil markets and financial conditions.

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The dominant financial theme was a sharp escalation in global trade tensions driven by new US tariffs, which disrupted global supply chains, weakened trade outlooks, and reshaped relative competitiveness between major economies.

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Global markets were increasingly driven by political developments, especially Japan’s election stimulus, UK political instability, and China’s Treasury positioning, while resilient economic growth and AI-led equity strength supported overall market performance.

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Global markets saw mixed volatility with major US indices rebounding sharply, crypto and commodities fluctuating. Emerging markets show resilience with regional cooperation and positive trade balances, but geopolitical risks continue to shape investment sentiment.

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Political and policy uncertainty, led by US domestic shifts, Europe’s regulatory and defence push, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Asia, has become the dominant force steering global markets, capital flows, and risk sentiment.

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Geopolitical risk, driven primarily by shifting US trade and security policy, has become the dominant force shaping global markets, alliances, and economic decisions across regions.

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