Patience v Euphoria

9 June 2026

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  • The biggest US market driver was the risk that the Iran conflict could keep oil near $100/barrel and reignite inflation pressures just as investors hoped for a stable rate environment. 
  • The UK economy appeared increasingly vulnerable to the energy shock, with growth slowing while fiscal resources were being redirected toward defence spending. 
  • Europe’s economic agenda increasingly centred on balancing energy-security risks with industrial protection policies, particularly regarding China and strategic sectors. 
  • Iran-driven food insecurity, Russia Ukraine war continues, and potential Bank of Japan tightening are reshaping the global economic outlook.

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