Dollar Dips, EM Flips

24 February 2026

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  • US tariff policy upheaval became the dominant macro driver, increasing uncertainty for global trade, corporate earnings outlooks, inflation trajectory, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
  • UK faces rising external and domestic pressures as US tariffs threaten exporters, trade negotiations intensify, refusal to support Iran strikes exposes allied divisions, and Labour instability increases political uncertainty.
  • EU faces growing trade uncertainty from US tariff shifts, while stable ECB policy and modest manufacturing recovery support growth, alongside efforts to strengthen trade defences against rising Chinese competition.
  • China’s trade position is improving despite tensions, Japan is deepening US economic alignment, and Ukraine’s military progress reinforces geopolitical uncertainty.

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